Resolution criteria

The Democratic primary election will be held on March 17, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate receives the most votes in the primary. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/).

Background

Incumbent Jan Schakowsky, who was initially elected to the seat in 1998 and re-elected with 68.4% of the vote in 2024, is not running for re-election. The district has a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19, making it the 69th most Democratic district nationally.

Recent polling from October 2025 shows Biss at 18%, Abughazaleh at 13%, and Fine at 9%, with around half of voters still undecided. As of June 30, Abughazaleh had the most cash on hand of any candidate, while Biss raised the most during the second quarter.

Considerations

The race includes 14 Democratic candidates, though only the four specified answers are included in this market. No independent polling has been completed and publicly released yet for the race, so available data comes from internal campaign polls.