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I saw a Russian source this morning saying that they had fully withdrawn from Kupyansk. We can probably call it.

@WillWilson

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-28

A prominent Russian military correspondent claimed that all Russian units entirely withdrew from Kupyansk on September 28, although it is unclear where those units are redeploying to.[20]

@WillWilson I saw such a report as well. On the other hand, Rybar's latest report had the eastern part as still contested, but it was from the 28th. There will probably be another update tonight or tomorrow, so if it confirms the Russian withdrawal, I would think it sufficient to resolve the question as "yes".

@AlexandreK It looks like Ukraine is already fighting for Kivsharivka and Petropavlivka. Do you agree that Kupiansk is a YES?

@Yev Yep, Rybar (finally) published an update today and they have Kupiansk 100% under Ukrainian control, so I there there's a general consensus now.

@AlexandreK *I think there's

(I guess comments can't be edited)

Ukraine seems to be continuing to liberate areas east of the Oskil, which makes me think this is resolvable if there is agreement that (even if there is some continued fighting) Ukraine has generally "regained control".

liveuamap:

ISW:

Ukrainian forces conducted operations to consolidate their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil River north of Kupyansk on September 27. Ukrainian officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (just east of Kupyansk), which reportedly serves as one of the largest railway nodes in Kharkiv Oblast.[11] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also continued to advance in the direction of Tavilizhanka (approximately 18km northeast of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on the Oskil River’s eastern bank) and have secured positions northwest of the settlement.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell Kucherivka and Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi) and Dvorichna (west of Tavilizhanka).[13] Social media footage also showed the aftermath of a Russian strike on Kupyansk.[14]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-27

Podolyaka says they’re still actively fighting over the Eastern half of the city:

https://t.me/war_subtitled_en/680

Russia tried to halt the Ukrainian offensive by blowing up the only bridge over the Oskil that links the two sides of Kupyansk. That didn’t work. In recent days, Ukrainian forces have steadily expanded their foothold on the eastern side of Oskil, using pontoon crossings to fill the area with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.

“We keep moving ahead, destroying Russian armed-forces formations. In a few more days, we should control the entire Kupyansk district,” said Andriy Kanashevych, acting head of the district’s military administration.

...

After taking the grain elevator, Legion soldiers patrolled on foot the industrial zone on the eastern edge of Kupyansk, snaking past the railway line as they monitored the sky for Russia’s Orlan drones.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pushing-east-of-kupyansk-ukrainian-forces-expand-offensive-11664111037

Rybar also says battles within the city today:

https://t.me/rybar/39307

My guess is it’ll become pretty clear in a day or two.

Yuri Podolyaka had the front running right through the middle of the city this morning:

https://t.me/yurasumy/5060

I think I saw something from Boris Rozhin. So that’s one Ukrainian and one Russian source saying the city is still contested.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1573789168848732170

> Ukrainian forces likely liberated Petropavlivka (Kharkiv Oblast) as of September 24

are there any specific sources saying Kupiansk isn't fully under Ukrainian control?

The map from the description as well as ISW (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) show both sides of the river under Ukrainian control

@AndyMartin I agree. I am about 98% certain this is a YES. But I am a bit concerned that liveuamap is still showing it as Russian.

@Yev As far as I'm aware, there's still no evidence of Ukrainian control, and Russian sources maintain that they control the eastern part. Some sources talk about a Russian counterattack west of the river, though not necessarily in Kupiansk itself. I don't think there's enough evidence to resolve this bet yet.

@AlexandreK Ok, I'll wait.

Liveuamap now shows it as contested, and claims that Russia has shelled eastern suburbs of Kupiansk.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-september-at-slobozhanschyna-direction-russian-army-shelled

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-16

> Ukrainian forces captured all of Kupyansk City on September 16, continuing offensive operations east of the Oskil River.

@AndyMartin Other sources say that Ukrainian DRGs merely made incursions into eastern Kupiansk and were later pushed back. The situation is still unclear, I would say.

@AlexandreK agree, no objections to holding resolution until it's more clear/unambiguous

Does Ukraine need to control the industrial zones East of the Oskol River in order to resolve this to YES?

@WillWilson Yes, everything that's highlighted here:

@AlexandreK (Or so I would think)

@WillWilson Yes.

What happens if Ukraine does regain control of Kupiansk before the end of the year, but then loses it again, also before the end of the year? Would it resolve to "YES" as soon as Ukraine regained control, or would we have to wait for January 1st, 2023?

@AlexandreK Resolved as soon as Ukraine gains complete control

@Yev Thanks.