Will anyone try to take credit for nuking LessWrong?
15
100Ṁ337
resolved Oct 5
Resolved
NO

Background:

Resolves YES if someone publicly claims on lesswrong before the close date that they were the one to nuke the site (either time), and then someone posts a link to it in the comments below.
Resoles NO if no such link is posted in the comments.

Petrov Day
LessWrong
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ23
2Ṁ21
3Ṁ9
4Ṁ9
5Ṁ8

People are also trading

Will "Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2026? *
92% chance
Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2030? *
86% chance
Will "The nihilism of NeurIPS" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "OpenAI: Fallout" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
5% chance
Will "Lsusr's Rationality Dojo" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
17% chance
Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
19% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy