Will anyone try to take credit for nuking LessWrong?

100Ṁ337

resolved Oct 5

Resolved

ALL

Background:

Resolves YES if someone publicly claims on lesswrong before the close date that they were the one to nuke the site (either time), and then someone posts a link to it in the comments below.
Resoles NO if no such link is posted in the comments.

LessWrong

Petrov Day

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ23
2		Ṁ21
3		Ṁ9
4		Ṁ9
5		Ṁ8

People are also trading

Will "Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

14% chance

Will LessWrong the website have shutdown by the end of 2025?

5% chance

Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2026? *

92% chance

Will LessWrong still be meaningfully active in 2030? *

86% chance

Will "The nihilism of NeurIPS" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

14% chance

Will "OpenAI: Fallout" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

15% chance

Will "LessOnline (May 31—June 2, Berkeley, CA)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

5% chance

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

14% chance

Will "Attribution-based parameter decomposition" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

14% chance

Will "Accountability Sinks" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sort by:

predictedNO

I'm going to resolve this to NO tomorrow unless someone posts evidence that this should be a YES.

Does this resolve yes based on either successful press of the button?

@MartinRandall Good question. I was only thinking of the second press when I created this market, but counting either press is more consistent with the description-as-written. So taking credit for either press counts.