Why October 15?

October surprise.

Fair enough- but wouldn't the better strategy be late October over even something like Nov 1st? Enough time to settle in, but not enough time for voters to 'get over' the shock, or Democrats to find ways to undermine the claims?

Arguably, yes. If I wrote this today I’d make the election the date. But I want to parallel the market I made for JD Vance, and I set that as October 15.