Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the date on which an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch is officially confirmed by reputable defense monitoring organizations, government press releases, or major international news outlets. An ICBM is defined as a land-based, nuclear-armed ballistic missile with a range of at least 5,500 kilometers.

• The market resolves to the specific date (April 7, 14, 21, or 28, 2026) on which an ICBM launch occurs.

• If a launch occurs on a date not listed, or if no ICBM launch occurs within the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to No.

• In the event of conflicting reports, official state military announcements or confirmation from the U.S. Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov/) or specialized monitoring entities such as the Federation of American Scientists (https://fas.org/) will be considered the definitive sources.

Background

ICBM tests are conducted by a limited number of nations, including the United States, Russia, China, North Korea, and others, often as demonstrations of military capability or technological readiness. Tracking these launches is a standard component of global security monitoring. Traders should note that while scheduled tests are sometimes announced in advance, many are conducted with little public notice. This market covers specific weekly windows in April 2026.

This description was generated by AI.