This market is whether or not LongWall Labs will make its first sale today, its been open for 2 months with none. Im expecting one today so the chances are going to be slightly increased from yesterday.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if LongWall Labs registers its first-ever customer sale on August 24, 2026, in the creator's local timezone.
The market resolves to NO if no customer sales are successfully processed and finalized by 11:59 PM on August 24, 2026, in the creator's local timezone.
Verification: Because sales data for a private company is not publicly accessible, this market will resolve based on the creator's self-report. The creator should provide a redacted screenshot of their e-commerce platform or payment processor (e.g., Shopify, Stripe) demonstrating a completed transaction timestamped on August 24, 2026, to verify the outcome.
Background
LongWall Labs is a supplier of laboratory and in-vitro research products. At the time of this market's creation, the storefront has been live for approximately two months without registering a sale. The creator expects the company's first-ever commercial transaction to be completed today.
This description was generated by AI.
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@bigyahu i agree, i wanna get a few more to agree with us first before i make the final decision though, i want everyone to be happy
@Jaygotpeps wasn’t sure on the wording of finalised, but i did a check with chatgpt:
The market should resolve NO.
The resolution criteria explicitly state that YES requires LongWall Labs to register its first-ever customer sale, while NO applies if no customer sales are “successfully processed and finalized” by 11:59 PM.
The only transaction shown was subsequently refunded due to stock issues. A refunded order is not a successfully finalized sale: the company did not ultimately retain the customer’s payment, and the transaction was reversed rather than completed commercially. This is also consistent with the creator’s own screenshot, which shows 1 order but $0.00 in revenue.
The distinction between an order being placed and a sale being successfully finalized matters here. The criteria were not written as “an order is submitted” or “a payment is initially processed”; they specifically require a completed transaction. Once the order was refunded, it ceased to satisfy that condition.
Therefore, unless there was another non-refunded transaction completed before the deadline, the market should resolve NO.
@bigyahu @Jaygotpeps thanks for resolving. unfortunate that you had to issue a refund, wishing you all the best! e commerce is hard man
@bigyahu of course bro, i really do appreciate it. Yeah im hoping they reorder tomorrow, it shouldnt have let them buy that many tho, the stock was set to the correct amount 🥲
@bigyahu not yet unfortunately, i just got home from work and havent rlly had time yet though im not sure what it could be, and currently through tiktok, google ads, meta and one to one salesmans
@realTomBayes recon solution, though im not sure why the email verification isnt working, let me know if you get it fixed.
i bought no, hoping you make it though!
@Qoiuoiuoiu if you mean the email verification, you just have to create a account and you can view the whole site
@Qoiuoiuoiu all good! When you sign up/create your account you agree that you are a bio organic chemist.