Resolves true if any of the following conditions is met in any 12 month period before 2030/1/1.
The USD accounts for less than 40% of all global foreign exchange reserves held by central banks.
The USD is used in less than 60% of all international trade and financial transactions, including commodities, debt obligations, and investments.
The USD is pegged or linked to no other currencies or to currencies that are legal tender in countries accounting for less than 5% of the world population at the time. The currencies can be linked directly or indirectly, through exchange rate regimes or currency boards.
Update 2026-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Condition 1 (USD percentage of global foreign exchange reserves): Gold may be included in the denominator when calculating the USD's share.
For Condition 3 (currency pegging verification): Resolution will be based on credible media reports or government announcements, as such policy shifts would have clear evidence.
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1. Traditionally global reserves /= global foreign exchange reserves https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.STA:COFER
What method is used to verify Condition 3?
Good point. Maybe we should include gold in the denominator.
Credible media reports / government announcing it? It'd be a huge policy shift so I expect to see very clear evidence.
Henry the K just suggested that Clown World would negotiate with Putin with China being involved. A sign of the losing of the Ukraine war (I was going to say 'we', but I am just a citizen, and have no choice in the matter) which will lead quickly to dedollarization as the Empire's military is what has kept such attempts at bay before.
I don't have a very good grasp of economics, but the person who I find speaks with the most clarity on the Chinese economy is Michael Pettis and for a long time he has guided my understanding about why the Yuan is unlikely to replace the Dollar internationally. This thread is a good introduction to some of the issues:
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1651182375999774720?s=20
@JoshuaWilkes Upon the news that Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, has left the dollarzone, I bet ten more against the dollar. I expect to hear more bad news about the dollar in the near-ish future as I do not think it will take anywhere near until 2030 for the petrodollar to be rendered no longer paramount.
@XavierDunikowski Sorry, I was trying to counter-spam someone's markets who spammed my advertisements and I accidentally spammed this market because they had commented on it. My apologies.