Market resolves based on published stats by ICO on supply and demand
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On one hand: the hell does it even mean for supply to exceed demand? Does it count if the price goes down? Is someone fixing prices? I'd like a free bag of coffee, but I probably won't get one, therefore demand exceeds supply
On further investigation: the ICO publishes a report at https://www.ico.org/Market-Report-22-23-e.asp that contains annual production/consumption data, presumably unbalanced by beans that are warehoused / etc.
In 2017, 167,806k bags were produced and 160,006k bags were consumed
In 2018, 170,195k bags were produced and 166,730k bags were consumed
In 2019, 168,902k bags were produced and 162,998k bags were consumed
In 2020, 170,830k bags were produced and 164,865k bags were consumed
In 2021, 167,170k bags were produced and 170,298k bags were consumed
(Figures given in terms of 1000 60-kg bags)
It looks like they're giving annual figures in terms of the "coffee year", which means that "2021" means October 1 2021 --> September 30 2022.
I'm guessing that this is the metric that OP will resolve by, but I'm not sure if he's planning to follow the calendar year or the coffee year, and if he's following the coffee year I'm not sure if it will be 2022/2023 or 2023/2024.
@citrinitas Good question, in this case it would be the coffee year oct 22 - sep 23 (2023 as simplification)
Supply and demand is measured and price is a result of it that incentivize future production or not
In this case only supply and demand is being considered, independent of price behavior
Supply (production) going up relative to demand – means a lower price. Without any further information, I’d assume this market resolves “yes” if prices decrease from the end of 2022 to EoY 2023. (This certainly seems possible and just happened in 2022, cf. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee). Is this in line with your intended meaning?