This market resolves on the date when GPT-4.1 becomes inaccessible, meaning none of the GPT-4.1 series models (nano, mini, "full," or any checkpoints) can be used by developers outside of OpenAI.

Example of events that will trigger a resolution.

• All GPT-4.1 variants return "model not found" errors and OpenAI confirms removal

• Last remaining checkpoint goes offline

• Models removed from docs and confirmed inaccessible
  GPT-4.1 merged into a unified model with automatic routing, not callable directly

• OpenAI ceases to exist entirely with no successor entity, model becomes inaccessible

• OpenAI acquired, new owner later removes GPT-4.1 → resolves then

• Regional restrictions expand to global inaccessibility → resolves then

• Temporary outage later confirmed as permanent removal → resolves then

Does not trigger a resolution

• Temporary outage without official removal announcement

• Price increase or rate limiting changes

• Regional restrictions (some regions blocked, others accessible)

• GPT-4.1 renamed but callable under new name and lineage is clear

• GPT-4.1 moved to enterprise-only tier

• GPT-4.1 accessible only via legacy endpoint

• GPT-4.1 available on Azure OpenAI but not api.openai.com

• GPT-4.1 open-sourced within 30 days of becoming unavailable otherwise

Note: "Before Jul/Jan 202X" means before the beginning of the month of July/January 202X (timezone: Anywhere on earth)