Will GPT-5 perform better than o1 (not preview) at AIME 2024, Codeforces elo, GPQA, or the 2024 ioi?
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4
Ṁ452025
63%
chance
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1M
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o1's scores are the ones mentioned here. https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/
Resolves yes if OpenAI or a third party tester is able to get GPT-5 to achieve higher scores on any of these benchmarks without any kind of prompt engineering or agent scaffolding
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I had a previous question that asked whether I would judge GPT-5 smarter than 01 that is sitting at 85% yes.
Personally I am unsure why people think this since it is heavily implied GPT-5 won't utilize the scaled test-time compute paradigm which was so key to o1's success. I would bet that GPT-5 will be unable to do this and that the goal is more so achieving near o1 performance more quickly and economically
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