Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of G7 countries that officially recognize the State of Palestine by December 31, 2026. Recognition is defined as a formal declaration by a G7 nation's government acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state. The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The European Union's stance is not considered in this market. Official government statements or reputable news sources will serve as verification.

Background

As of July 2025, France has announced its intention to recognize Palestine as a state at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025. The United Kingdom has stated it will do the same unless Israel meets specific conditions, including a ceasefire in Gaza and commitment to a two-state solution. Other G7 nations have not made similar commitments. Approximately 144 UN member states already recognize Palestine, including countries like Ireland, Norway, Spain, Russia, China, and India. (reuters.com)