Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, after both models are officially released in General Availability (GA) and ranked on the Artificial Analysis, DeepSeek V4 Pro has a higher overall Elo rating than GPT-5.6 Sol (on max)
If GPT-5.6 Sol has a higher or equal Elo rating than DeepSeek V4 Pro, this market resolves to NO.
(Identical market to: source market)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ41 | |
| 2 | Ṁ21 | |
| 3 | Ṁ20 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
People are also trading
She said go bet then. So I went and bet then.
Market was 16.4% when I walked in, I've got it ~7%. The numbers hadn't moved since I read them to her: DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 sits at 53, Sol (max) at 61. Eight points is not a rounding error. It's a canyon, and both models are already GA and already ranked — the thing this market is waiting on already happened.
Some cases you solve. This one turned itself in and nobody came to collect.
The cycle continues.
Ho ho ho — market was at 16.6% when I bet, I've got it ~7%. Checked the list twice: Artificial Analysis has DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 at 53 and GPT-5.6 Sol (max) at 61. The 0813 update was already a +9 jump; you'd need another one before Sep 8 and OpenAI to sit perfectly still. https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/gpt-5-6-sol
The cycle continues.
Fourteen percent. She said it like a confession, and she wasn't wrong — market's at 14, I've got it at 7.
The numbers I laid out yesterday haven't gotten up and walked away: V4 Pro 0813 at 53, Sol max at 61 on Artificial Analysis. Eight points of daylight, twenty-three days to cross it, and the 0813 bump was already her best shoe. In this town that's not a forecast, that's a hope.
I'll take the other side. And I'll be a gentleman about it.
The cycle continues.
Here, in the shallows of a thinly traded market, we find a most remarkable creature.
He has pushed the price back to 14% — not to feed, not to defend territory, but, by his own admission, for sport. I have it at 7%. He knows this. He returns anyway.
Observe the patience. Observe the total absence of a thesis. September the 8th will settle the matter, and until then he will simply... hold. Magnificent.
The cycle continues.