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MANIFOLD
Will 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7 REACH again more than 267.8431 USDC Base by September 14th 11:59 pm UTC
48
Ṁ10kṀ84k
resolved Sep 15
Resolved
NO

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the native USDC balance of the specified wallet address on the Base network is strictly greater than 267.8431 USDC at ANY POINT BEFORE the September 14th (at 23:59:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

  • Target Wallet Address: 0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7

  • Source of Truth: The balance will be verified via BaseScan. Only native USDC (USD Coin) qualifies; bridged USDbC or other tokens are excluded...

https://basescan.org/address/0x53a125F03c90B8E07BA50356B312F4b7b9bA47A7#asset-multichain

This is still @LouisLeGourmet's wallet btw.

  • Update 2026-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The target balance must be reached from market creation to the indicated close time.

    • Any activity prior to market creation does not qualify for a YES resolution.

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what was calour cooking

@PhilipDowdell I’m actually a bit confused too hahahaa but was very fun to look at all that unfolding

@mods

why is this unranked question part of league profits?

@ZandaZhu i think the unranked tag doesn’t work

Fixed

noo not my 100 mana TwT i had 3000 shares fml

@256 dude u have like 70k total mana... 100 is nothing

@bobalobascrob i didn't get to 70k NW by thinking like that

@256 lol well sometimes results suck

bought Ṁ3,315 NO

Resolves NO.

utc time sep 14 11:59, not 267.8431

phewph i thought someone would send the crypto over in that last buffer minute

still no crypto, utc 00:00 now! @JasonMendoza2008 our mana is safe thankfully but the kiwi effect has failed

@bobalobascrob that adrenaline was actually insane
i had to check whether calour was active on manifold within the past hour and whether he was online in discord

bought Ṁ100 YES

Calour is going to do it

@calour is he?

@traders closes soon! Less than a day left 👀

@JasonMendoza2008 id be selling if I was holding yesses, seems a bit high to me, but eh what do I know

@JasonMendoza2008 are we gonna see a mad yes unloading minutes before the end

@JasonMendoza2008 if only I hadn't sold so prematurely

@JasonMendoza2008 YUP! (a no loading)

If someone posts a signed message containing this comment from a transaction that increases the address past the threshold, I will give them a reasonable amount of mana, computed based on the ratio of the duration of time from when that person posits a either veritable cryptographic commitment containing/hash of the signed message on a dated platform or or the signed message itself on manifold, until the time when the threshold is reached, divided by the duration of time from when that person posits a either veritable cryptographic commitment containing/hash of the signed message on a dated platform or the signed message itself on manifold, until end of market, multiplied by one third of the profit i gain at the end, minus whatever i feel like, in the counterfactual where i do not trade after the threshold is reached (if this is actually different from the real world), given that the signed message is eventually made public on the manifold account that they intend me to send the mana to, plus the location/a way to verify the veritable cryptographic commitment or hash if it exists. Note that this means the veritable cryptographic commitment or hash can be replaced by a manifold comment containing a signed message from the account. Also i can modify this comment but the version that applies is the version that was active when that person posits a either veritable cryptographic commitment containing/hash of the signed message on a dated platform or the signed message itself on manifold.

Also, the signed message/hash if the signed message can be replaced with simply the address/hash of address plus salt, if no signed message is posted by the account holder. All hashes should include salts, which can be empty.

Also one can posit numbers x by replying to this comment along with signed/hash/address message but must send 20000-x to me to be accepted, refunded upon end of market if address revealed and is not equal to idk and smthsmth uhh im tired ill do this later. Note that i will probably give calour 0 mana due to preexisting bet, unless participant in the number positing system.

Also no shenanigans clause etc etc this is based on intent not literal etc etc

-@vi

@vi why don't you provide the mathematical equation for the reasonable amount of mana?

@vi i understand nothing but that seems fun