Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
Plus
36
Ṁ24432025
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
For the purpose of this question, AGI is defined on a human-centric scales as follows:
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the representation of generalized human cognitive abilities in software so that, faced with an unfamiliar task, the AGI system could find a solution. The intention of an AGI system is to perform any task that a human being is capable of."
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@JasonKuczek It seems a little boring to have this question close so long before its resolve date. Should it be reopened?
@EvanDaniel That’s a great point. This was one of my first questions. Rookie mistake. I’ll reopen it as soon as I figure out how to do that.
Related questions
Related questions
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
28% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
51% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
36% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
46% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
28% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
18% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
38% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
69% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
63% chance