Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?
Basic
6
Ṁ872026
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison.
Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unlikely anyway).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
When will Trump serve time?
Will Trump spend any time in jail by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Trump do time?
9% chance
Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
13% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?
18% chance
If Trump loses the election, will he be sentenced to house arrest or incarceration by the end of 2028?
43% chance
Will Donald Trump spend any time in prison before 2030?
23% chance
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2028?
18% chance
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
70% chance