Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Question

If there is substantial disagreement across sources as to whether global greenhouse gas emissions were lower in 2026 than in 2025, question resolution will defer to Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/JaromGordon/will-global-greenhouse-gas-emission)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (68 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).