This market aims to predict whether Russia will open a new front in Ukraine before September 1, 2024. "Opening a new front" means initiating a significant new offensive operation in an area that has been relatively quiet or not heavily contested in recent months, similar to the offensive near Kharkiv in May. This would involve substantial troop movements, and artillery.

For clarity, this does not include minor skirmishes or localized engagements but rather a coordinated effort.