Will Manifold reach 925 Engaged Users by June 1st?
resolved Jun 6

Mainfold grew 10 times from August to the end of 2022.

However, since then, we've been pretty flat in terms of our engaged users.

Will we reach 925+ engaged users by June 1st?

Previous market: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-manifold-resume-growing-its-da

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MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted NO

Resolves No

DmytroBulatov avatar
Dmytro Bulatovbought Ṁ20 of YES

20 non bot users bought yes
imagine all of them referring a friend or two, that would impact this graph noticeably

JustNo avatar

@DmytroBulatov engaged is a lot higher bar than joining - and right now I feel like on the surface manifold is only engaging to a very nice audience.

tornado avatar
tornadopredicted NO

@DmytroBulatov If we implement a guild system, people would have much more incentive to recruit friends to join Manifold. Think about the potential user growth that could result from it! Engagement would be guaranteed, since groups of friends would be talking about Manifold in a team chat daily.

JustNo avatar

I really feel like retention/engagement could be dramatically improved if new users were prompted to choose categories they were interested in, and had markets related to those topics promoted.**

Also better search tools.

It's taken me a few weeks to learn my way around enough to find markets I'm interested in, in the mean time I was constantly wading through nonsense meme/self referential markets -- and I like some of those, but even enjoying that somewhat, it got tiresome. I don't want to see those banned - but maybe remove the incentives to create them?

**I absolutely hate when a platform /demands/ that I choose topics when I'm trying to get an account. Please don't do that.

PipFoweraker avatar
Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ15 of YES

@JustNo Agreed - easier ways to browse visually might be a nice uplift to the UI.

Wobbles avatar
Wobblesbought Ṁ10 of YES

I believe in you guys