Will Manifold resume growing its Daily Active Users by May 1st?
resolved May 1

Mainfold grew 10 times from August last year to mid-December.

However, since then, we've been pretty flat in terms of our daily active users.

Will I judge that our growth has resumed on May 1st? I'll be looking for consistent positive trends and probably 1200+ daily active users.

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bought Ṁ5,000 of NO

There's a slight bump from WvM, but not a consistent positive trend in the daily view.

Not 1200+ daily active users.

I've seen some new people placing bets and being active after WvM, but it doesn't show up in the statistics.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@JamesGrugett what do you judge so far? the upward trend happened march 23 (market made date) - april 5 where it peaked at 1210. So, it did touch 1200 but very briefly only, and has been same as always since

predicted YES

@Dreamingpast Yeah, definitely a NO so far. Need to see a rebound trend for this to resolve YES.

Although, we did add a new chart below active users of "Engaged users" which tells a more positive story. If there were a strong trend in that plus a minor positive trend in active users that might qualify for YES.

predicted YES

Cross-posted from Discord:
I am looking for enduring growth actually. Minor spikes are not great evidence of that. It's one reason we added the Engaged User chart below the (daily/weekly/monthly) active users https://manifold.markets/stats

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO


bought Ṁ300 of NO


predicted YES

Looking pretty good!

predicted NO

@CarsonGale Still consistent with the all the other small bumps we've gotten after the big one in November. I think it needs to continue significantly above those in order to count for this market.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@IsaacKing a small point but if you look at the number of new sign-ups, then you'll see that for the first time in many months, there are consistently>100 sign-ups a day which is an underlying indicator of growth

bought Ṁ60 of NO

Alright NO bettors, join me in a boycott until the end of April.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing but my streak

predicted NO

Where can the usage statistics be found?

predicted YES
predicted NO

@HenriThunberg Thank you.

bought Ṁ2 of NO

Manifold needs to up its game,
If they want to regain fame.
Without funding to fill the hole,
Can they grow? Only time will show.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I bet NO but have insufficient insight to be sure. If you flatline there needs some kind of shift which might be tough to achieve. But the basic concept of prediction markets is powerful. It is one of the few concepts that actually works as an attractor for relevant discussion. Reputation for good predictions and good analysis in comments can be a very powerful status signal. I would like to see manifold position it self as a platform where you can effectively search for experts that proved their competence by predicting more correctly over than others. Think something like the following: I need to find trustworthy knowledge about a certain topic. So I need to find a prooven expert on the topic. So I go find the topic on manifold, check who is the most reliable predictor and that is the one I want to follow and connect to. Positioning Manifold as an access point to the most topic-wise people on the planet has huge potential but will need some time.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

I think it's now saturated the market, the only way forward is to get real money involved which would take years to finalize. Betting on No unless there's going to be a massive ad campaign soon.


Hmm, I'll bet against you just based on the outside view. We have made a lot of changes that seemed objectively good over the past few months and I think the site got substantially better, but it didn't translate into DAUs. So I am not so sure that more good changes over the past month and a half are going to, either.

I'm pretty confident we'll resume growing shortly. I think we've just learned a whole lot about how to improve the new user experience, improve product clarity, show more relevant content, and increase virality.
Manifold can't be stopped! Not at 1000 DAU or even 10,000 DAU.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@JamesGrugett I am unconvinced those things have anything to do with gaining new users, though they do keep those of us already here happy. You guys need to sponsor the Crystal Ballin' podcast if you want to drive new user growth!! I am totally serious and will be sending you guys a proposal.

It has already saturated the market, outgrown every other prediction site.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@MarkIngraham Bet me on it then!

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@JamesGrugett I think the accuracy and quality of the site is more important than growth and I think that's doing fine.

bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

@MarkIngraham More users means more predictions and more markets. We'll have more experts that can fine-tune the probability of more markets, making them much more accurate and providing more value to the world!