Resolves YES if AOC is ever elected President of the United States. Otherwise, resolves NO when she dies, or the US ceases to exist.
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My thought process behind betting YES to 20-25%:
AOC has a lot of charisma and a compelling life story, and a history of pragmatism; she's not interested in sabotaging the party
The Democratic Party is likely to continue moving left, especially as younger generations are more left-leaning
There could be a large generational shift in U.S. politics as Baby Boomers age out of the electorate and Gen Z ages into it
The Republican Party could nominate an unelectable candidate - e.g. AOC probably wins an election versus Boebert or MTG
AOC is young and could theoretically run for president as late as the 2060s or even 2070s; that's a long time for political conditions to change
Weirder things have happened
This market being over 10% is absurd - For AOC to ever be remotely electable, even theoretically, she'd either have to move to the right in a big way (unlikely as she's made a career out of specialising as a figurehead for the hard-left democrat counterculture) or the populace has to move left in a big way (unlikely because US culture is what it is).