My thought process behind betting YES to 20-25%:

• AOC has a lot of charisma and a compelling life story, and a history of pragmatism; she's not interested in sabotaging the party

• The Democratic Party is likely to continue moving left, especially as younger generations are more left-leaning

• There could be a large generational shift in U.S. politics as Baby Boomers age out of the electorate and Gen Z ages into it

• The Republican Party could nominate an unelectable candidate - e.g. AOC probably wins an election versus Boebert or MTG

• AOC is young and could theoretically run for president as late as the 2060s or even 2070s; that's a long time for political conditions to change

• Weirder things have happened

https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-alexandria-ocasiocortez-run-fo

This market being over 10% is absurd - For AOC to ever be remotely electable, even theoretically, she'd either have to move to the right in a big way (unlikely as she's made a career out of specialising as a figurehead for the hard-left democrat counterculture) or the populace has to move left in a big way (unlikely because US culture is what it is).

AOC roughly agrees with you

AOC played Among Us with my favourite streamers so I'm predicting yes :)

Yes resolves before no, so these markets will be skewed

@ahalekelly Loans help with this