No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan in 2022
No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan in 2022
49
220Ṁ2521resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
#MattYglesias2022
One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard
#Taiwan #China #2022
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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