If Russia invades Ukraine, what will that look like over the first month?
10
6
resolved Apr 2
86%63%
There will be some resistance from Ukrainians, over 500 deaths, and 10%-50% of Ukrainian territory will be occupied.
14%17%
Most major cities of Ukraine are occupied by Russia, and between 3,000 and 30,000 Ukrainians died.
1%0.4%
Strong resistance from Ukrainians. Territory occupied by Russia shifts rapidly, but it never goes above ~30% of Ukraine (# whalebait?). By around March 5, Russian(+Belorussian?) forces suffer so many loses that they have to withdraw (probably to 2020 border). By this point there are 500-1500 Ukrainian civilians dead according to Ukraine, 0 according to Russia (or if there are any, they're all from friendly fire); 7000-15000 Russian military dead according to Ukraine, Russia doesn't disclose or says some obviously false number like 13. Neither side discloses Ukrainian military deaths (at least not immediately). I have no idea what happens after Russian troops withdraw.
2%
There will be little resistance from Ukrainians, between 10-100 deaths, and 10%-50% of Ukrainian territory will be occupied.
8%
Luhansk & Donetsk oblast (besides LNR/DNR) fully or partially occupied, >500 deaths, army of Ukraine still resists, no major cities are occupied outside of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast
0.0%
There will be little resistance from Ukrainians, over 500 deaths, and 10%-50% of Ukrainian territory will be occupied.
This resolves N/A if Russia does not invade Ukraine before May 1st. If they do invade, I will wait a month after their invasion, and pick the answer that best captures the most important details of their invasion. For example, how much territory will they occupy? How many deaths will there be, roughly? And so on. Close date updated to 2022-03-16 11:59 pm Feb 25, 5:28pm: For the purposes of this question, Russia invaded on Feb 23, so I will resolve the question on March 24th. I've also updated the close date to one week before (March 16th, end of day).
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sold Ṁ12 of Strong resistance fr...
Territory and Russian casualties were roughly correct. I was way too optimistic about Putin's ability to know when to cut his losses. I also did not expect so many civilian deaths in Kharkiv and Mariupol.
sold Ṁ5 of There will be some r...
I think there has already been more than "some" resistance, and 500 is going to be an off by at least an order of magnitude (although I said "at least", so still technically correct). 10%-50% is a pretty big range, I think that the maximum territory will be in this range.
sold Ṁ0 of There will be little...
There has been more than "a little" resistance, and Ukraine claims ~300 dead civilians (so the real number is probably even higher)
bought Ṁ1 of There will be some r...
Thanks Yev! I've updated the close date to March 16th, and I will choose an answer on March 24th. Curious to see how this market plays out!
bought Ṁ1 of There will be little...
What is the exact date for end of the "first month" (is it 30 days or calendar month? Are you counting from Feb 21, 22 or 23?) You should probably also set an appropriate close date, at least a week before the market resolves.

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