Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?
121
222
Ṁ10KṀ1.1K
2031
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves yes if on or before Jan 1st, 2031, a human has set foot on the Martian surface.
Get Ṁ200 play money
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@Mqrius the market is about setting foot, I'm not sure if the market maker intended to ask whether humans can reach Mars by 2030, or land and return
@GeorgeVii Besides SpaceX as a private entity, there's NASA itself most likely in collaboration with SpaceX. That's all as far as I know. China seems to have plans to go to the moon NET 2030ish, and Russia doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.
@JamesGiammona Misunderstanding, I think: When I made that bet, Manifold gave M$20 loans per market for everyone to stake on whichever side they want. If you resolve NO, I lose M$20 in 7 years. If you resolve YES, I gain 36 in probably less than 7 years.
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