Will the first person to die on the moon die from an “accident”
Will the first person to die on the moon die from an “accident”
8
260Ṁ1882050
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Accident would be anything that wouldn’t have happened if they weren’t doing something so any death related to them being on the moon is an “accident”
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What will be the cause of death for the first person to die on the moon
In what year will the first person die on the moon?
When the first person dies on the moon, will they be buried on the moon?
35% chance
When the first person dies on the moon, will an attempt be made to return their remains to Earth?
59% chance
Will someone die on the moon before a human lands on mars
38% chance
Will a human die on the moon before a human walks on mars?
36% chance
Human dies on The Moon by 2050
58% chance
Will a baby be born on the moon before someone dies on the moon
19% chance
Will a person die on the moon before the end of 2050?
58% chance
Who will walk on the Moon first?