Will Elon Musk die before 75% of the US has self driving cars
21
1kṀ1167
2060
61%
chance

I’m going to use the best data source available for self driving cars. Cars count as self driving if it can do an hour long commute going on both an highway and in the city. ( I may update this definition to stay within the spirit of the market)

Elon musk
Self-Driving Vehicles
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Death markets
Cars
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Can you define the word "has"? 😆

What about people who get rid of their cars and use self driving taxi services

@ahalekelly Has mean owns

Seems like a weird market then. I expect robotaxis to takeover ~95% of the consumer market in ~20 years, but the remaining 5% will be specialized/hobbyist/rural stuff that could very well be human driven for a long time.

Yeah I think “75% of passenger miles are in self driving cars” or “75% of cars are self driving” would be much more useful ways to measure this.

bought Ṁ10 NO

What do you mean by 'height' in the description?

@DavidFWatson Typo

@JamesF To clarify, you'd say that Waymo in California/Arizona would qualify if they could go on highways then?

@DavidFWatson Id have to look more into it but it looks like it would count

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