1,000
3.00@AbhinavSrinivas On the other team:
@singer here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#pndnyock9er
@0482 here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#1wn7bmbwnwi
@ProjectVictory here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#vyo8zfzr5co
That gets us three members of the other team, and thus a majority whose collective choice will determine their overall team's choice.
Meanwhile, on our team, we've got:
@koadma here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#q83tir7s29o
me here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#489ltib2h4p
@june here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#52ih3jf9xjn
you here: https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-will-the-outcome-of-my-manifol#4kxrmn6efn3
So, overall, both teams have a majority committed to cooperate at this point.
@singer I will once two more members of your team pledge P. Until then, holding those shares remains beneficial; I trust your statement of unconditional-intent-to-cooperate, but I've seen no such statements from the rest of your team thus far, and thus a 4-1 or 3-2 vote to defect from your team remains possible for now.
@singer My shares are now sold. (For 17 mana, after I'd previously bought them for 20.)
Trust is essential to being human and imo cooperation is one of the keys to humanity's greatness. For me personally (and hopefully for others reading), the utility of seeing trust prevail is worth much more than 50 Mana, so my offer is simple: If at least three members of the other team pledges to cooperate given that at least three members of my team did so (including me), then I will cooperate. (And I pledge)
@AbhinavSrinivas yeah, i understand that, that's why I wrote it in conditional tense. To be more clear: Let the pledge denoted P be "If three members of the other (wrt to the one taking the pledge) team pledges P, then I will cooperate on my team's poll". I pledged P.
@koadma I pledge P, but I'm choosing to vote to cooperate unconditionally: see my M50 bet in /singer/will-i-cooperate-in-the-manifold-pr , and also my position in this market.
@koadma According to this comment, there will be a span of 3 days between when the cooperate/defect poll opens and when @JamesF gets a new set of players, if the current set is nonresponsive. If a third player on the other team pledges P, or pledges a superset of P like @singer and @0482's general commitments-to-cooperate, I will cooperate on my team's poll immediately. Otherwise, I will wait at least two days before making my vote on my team's poll, to give members of the other team more time to make such commitments before I'm locked into a vote for anything that isn't cooperate.
Once I've made my vote, I'll announce so here, for purposes of transparency regarding when my vote is locked in and can no longer be moved by any subsequent pledge of P by a third member of the other team. (I won't necessarily say which direction I voted in, although, if it happens within the initial two-day window, it will be to cooperate.)
Really, I should have included this as a disclaimer on my initial pledge. But it's an edge case I thought of only afterwards. P, interpreted literally, implies being unable to ever safely choose to defect, because after any such choice a member of the other team might choose to pledge P and render me retroactively in-violation-of-my-pledge. However, this clearly goes against the spirit in which P was proposed (as a means of assuring mutual cooperation, not merely one-sided cooperation). This addendum is my best attempt at rescuing that spirit while only minimally risking deviation from the literal reading.
@Tulip I wouldn’t say that it would most likely incentivize the outcome that is least expected not necessarily stealing