⚽ Will Francesco Camarda be considered a top player before 2034?
2
49
70
2033
18%
chance

This market is about the young Italian football talent Francesco Camarda. He's currently 15 years old, will be 25 years old by the time this market resolves.

For a YES resolution, at least 3 of the 5 criterias must be met:

  1. Played in at least 50 official matches for his first team national team (includes friendlies).

  2. Started in at least 120 matches in the top 5 leagues and Champions League combined. Currently the top 5 leagues consist of 1st divisions of Italy, England, Spain, Germany, and France, but this is naturally subject to change over time.

  3. Scored at least 80 goals in the top 5 leagues and Champions League combined.

  4. Received at least one top award for individual performance. These are currently limited to:
    - Ballon d'Or
    - FIFA Men's Player of the Year
    - UEFA Men's Player of the Year
    - Premier League Player of the Season
    - La Liga Most Valuable Player
    - Serie A Footballer of the Year
    - Bundesliga Player of the Year
    - Ligue 1 Player of the Year
    - FIFA World Cup Golden Ball
    Since there is a possibility of awards being phased out, and new respected awards appearing in the future, here are general criteria I will use for determining whether such awards exist outside of the aforementioned, or whether the aforementioned are no longer relevant I will ultimately defer to my best judgment but will consult the community in the comments of the market if I think how it should be resolved isn't fully clear:
    - The award must recognize individual performance in football either at a national level (within one of the top 5 European leagues [currently Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 (subject to change)], globally, or on football's most competitive continent (currently Europe).
    - The award should be widely recognized and respected within the football community. It should have a history of being awarded to players who are considered among the best in their leagues, countries, or globally at the time.
    - The award should be focused on overall performance rather than a narrow or specific aspect of play. Awards for young players, particular positions, or specific skills (e.g. Goal of the Year) are excluded.
    - The award should be given by a reputable organization or group such as a national football association, a major league, or a recognized global football organization.

  5. Was part of a team (meaning he played for the team during the competition that was won) that won a major competition, which are defined as either:
    - One of the top 5 leagues
    - Champions League
    - Europa League
    - World Cup
    - International continental competitions: UEFA European Championship, Copa America, etc.

The significance of competitions like the UEFA Champions League, or the UEFA Europa League, or even the UEFA European Championship (though unlikely) are subject to change. The recently proposed Super League project would wreak havoc when it comes to the importance of these competitions for instance. While I do reserve my right to interpret these changes in a way that would make the listed competitions irrelevant, I intend to consult user opinion on this if such changes where to take place. The spirit of the market is to determine whether Camarda is a top player at the time, if the Champions League hyperbolically changes to be a competition that you qualify for if you get relegated from your national league, then it'd feel stupid to still use it as a qualifying criteria for whether a player is 'at the top' or not.

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Kudos on the cool resolution criteria that seem a good fit for the spirit of the question, did you come up with them yourself?
I guess my only feedback would be to restrict #4 a bit more, as the last point is still a bit vague to what kind of award might end up qualifying. E.g. if there are several prizes in a country (not unusual for news outlets to have their own?) do they all count? As I read the criteria now, player of the year within a bottom-place team of a top league might qualify, which sounds too lenient?

predicts NO

@HenriThunberg
I did.

That's a fair objection, I appreciate the feedback. I've edited it to the following:

Received at least one top award for individual performance. These are currently limited to:
- Ballon d'Or
- FIFA Men's Player of the Year
- UEFA Men's Player of the Year
- Premier League Player of the Season
- La Liga Most Valuable Player
- Serie A Footballer of the Year
- Bundesliga Player of the Year
- Ligue 1 Player of the Year
- FIFA World Cup Golden Ball
Since there is a possibility of awards being phased out, and new respected awards appearing in the future, here are general criteria I will use for determining whether such awards exist outside of the aforementioned, or whether the aforementioned are no longer relevant I will ultimately defer to my best judgment but will consult the community in the comments of the market if I think how it should be resolved isn't fully clear:
- The award must recognize individual performance in football either at a national level (within one of the top 5 European leagues [currently Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 (subject to change)], globally, or on football's most competitive continent (currently Europe).
- The award should be widely recognized and respected within the football community. It should have a history of being awarded to players who are considered among the best in their leagues, countries, or globally at the time.
- The award should be focused on overall performance rather than a narrow or specific aspect of play. Awards for young players, particular positions, or specific skills (e.g. Goal of the Year) are excluded.
- The award should be given by a reputable organization or group such as a national football association, a major league, or a recognized global football organization.

I've also added the following clause to the end of the market:

The significance of competitions like the UEFA Champions League, or the UEFA Europa League, or even the UEFA European Championship (though unlikely) are subject to change. The recently proposed Super League project would wreak havoc when it comes to the importance of these competitions for instance. While I do reserve my right to interpret these changes in a way that would make the listed competitions irrelevant, I intend to consult user opinion on this if such changes where to take place. The spirit of the market is to determine whether Camarda is a top player at the time, if the Champions League hyperbolically changes to be a competition that you qualify for if you get relegated from your national league, then it'd feel stupid to still use it as a qualifying criteria for whether a player is 'at the top' or not.

Let me know if you have any further feedback.

bought Ṁ13 of NO

His current goal-scoring record in Milan's youth teams is 485 goals scored in 89 matches played.

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