David Knowles, co-host of the Telegraph podcast "Telegraph's Ukraine: The Latest", died on Sep 9. Some are speculating that he may have been assassinated.
This market resolves positive if:
A UK or US law enforcement or intelligence agency states publicly that it believes David Knowles was murdered (by anyone)
Any person is arrested, charged, or has an arrest warrant issued, on suspicious killing David Knowles
This market resolves negative if:
None of the above has happened by July 1, 2025, or
David Knowles is publicly reported to have had a known preexisting medical condition which explains his death and the odds in this market are below 15%, without any obvious sign of market manipulation
This market remains open if:
A news outlet reports that David Knowles was murdered without a UK or US law enforcement or intelligence community source
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ462 | |
| 2 | Ṁ217 | |
| 3 | Ṁ142 | |
| 4 | Ṁ118 | |
| 5 | Ṁ111 |
@strutheo Source? I'm assuming you did some research, is it really fair to make the mod team repeat that work without help?
@strutheo Here's a minimalist attempt I made at the same problem recently. Not saying it's perfect or even good, just that an attempt was made.
https://manifold.markets/Gk0sll/will-twitch-pay-the-withheld-earnin?tab=comments#0hwejti78tqg
The other approach I've taken recently is:
@traders I'm going to resolve this No by default in 48 hours (ish). Please post evidence to the contrary if appropriate!