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MANIFOLD
Did FTX first become insolvent as a result of a hack?
17
Ṁ550Ṁ3.9k
resolved Mar 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves positively if it's revealed, prior to Mar 1 2024, that either FTX or Alameda Research suffered a major theft, excluding insider theft by Sam Bankman-Fried or a close associate, and that this theft was the first point at which they did not have sufficient funds to cover their customer deposits.

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I think it is pretty well established now that FTX was just running a negative balance sheet and papering it over eith their own minted coins.

I believe it's publicly established that FTX improperly lent customer funds to sister organization Alameda Research, as capital for a trading scheme that lost money. There are two possible interpretations of this. In one possible history, FTX was a profitable business in the green, and this was an attempt to generate extra profits on the side. In a different possible history, FTX was already insolvent, and this was an attempt to make back losses so that the loss could be concealed.

(This is what happened to MtGox: they were hacked, they tried to make back the money with a trading bot, the bot lost money instead of making more money. In order to conceal the insolvency MtGox had to sabotage its internal controls, which led to it being stolen from many more times.)

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