Will the 47th President reach a worse net approval rating than Biden?
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Joe Biden's net approval rating fell to a new low of Disapprove +20.2% in the 538 average on July 4th (How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight).
Similarly, it fell to a new low of Disapprove +19.3% in the RCP average on July 5th (President Biden Job Approval Ratings and Polls | RealClearPolling)
Will Biden's successor poll worse than this according to either 538 or RCP by October 31st 2028?
If both sources stop publishing before expiry, I will pick a successor source that is widely cited and has as similar a methodology as possible. If the 47th President polls lower according to either RCP or 538, that will be sufficient to resolve "yes". They do not have to poll lower in both sources. Ties do not count as "lower".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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