The Portland, OR mayoral race frontrunners include 3 current commissioners and one outside candidate, Keith Wilson. Wilson is running based on a plan to rapidly scale up shelters, coupled with enforcement of the camping ban, to end Portland's issues of unsheltered people sleeping in public spaces.
Many Portlanders' votes, including my own, depend largely on whether we think Keith can pull off this feat, so I'd likely to inform my decision by soliciting the Manifold community's expertise.
Resolves to N/A if Wilson does not win the Portland mayoral election in November 2024. Will resolve based on the results of the annual Multnomah County homelessness census in January 2026, or another reputable source if that is not completed.
Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution methodology change: The market will compare January 2025 to December 2025 unsheltered numbers from the county's monthly dashboard (rather than the biannual census mentioned in the original description, which does not occur in January 2026).
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My initial resolution criteria was wrong; there is no county census in Jan 2026, with it being a biannual census. However, the county does have a monthly dashboard that uses a slightly different methodology, so I'll plan to compare Jan 2025 to Dec 2025 unsheltered numbers for resolution. December numbers are not yet in, so I won't resolve quite yet, but the numbers have been steadily increasing throughout the year
@JakeDennie The December numbers are now out. Unsheltered has continued to rise, so no, Wilson did not succeed in cutting unsheltered homelessness by >80% by the end of 2025. (And not that it matters for this market, but overall it looks like the trend has actually gotten worse over the past year, at least according to the dashboard.)