Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the suspect identified in the April 25, 2026, shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, Cole Tomas Allen, is formally charged with attempted assassination (or attempted presidential assassination) by a state or federal prosecutor's office before 11:59 PM ET on May 9, 2026.

If no such charge is filed by that time, the market will resolve to "No."

Official announcements from the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia, or credible reporting from major news outlets (such as the Associated Press, Reuters, CBS News, or The Washington Post) confirming the filing of the specific charge will be used for verification.

Background

On the evening of April 25, 2026, an individual identified by law enforcement as 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen attempted to breach a security checkpoint at the Washington Hilton hotel during the White House Correspondents' Association dinner. During the incident, Allen reportedly discharged a firearm, injuring a Secret Service agent who was wearing a bulletproof vest.

Authorities stated that Allen was in possession of a shotgun, a handgun, and multiple knives. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche indicated that investigators believe Allen was targeting members of the Trump administration. As of April 26, 2026, the suspect had been detained and was facing preliminary firearm and assault charges, with investigations into his motives—including the discovery of a potential "manifesto"—ongoing.

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