[POLL] Do you think Eliezer Yudkowsky is right about AI risk, timelines, and so on?
157
Never closes
Yes
Neutral/mixed
No
n/a - see results

This poll mostly exists to get a baseline estimate of how biased Manifold is in his favor, hopefully making future polls involving won/lost debates (or other things) easier to calibrate.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Great idea

big if true

(should be separate polls for ai risk and timelines)

@firstuserhere Probably. I wanted to get a baseline approval rating type thing, though - something measurable in one poll.

@evergreenemily I see, I wanna vote in opposite directions for risk and timelines. I guess I'll go for mixed then

@firstuserhere likewise. from what I understand, my timelines are way further than most people find it fashionable to set them, but my conclusion on alignment is that we'll be lucky if our deaths are instantaneous.

@firstuserhere Here's one with more granularity:

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules