Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Adriano Espaillat appears on the official general election ballot for New York's 13th Congressional District in November 2026 under any party line other than Democratic or Republican (such as the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, or an independent ballot line). It will also resolve to YES if he formally registers as an active write-in candidate with the Board of Elections for the general election.
This market will resolve to NO if he does not appear on the general election ballot under a non-major party line, does not file to run as an active write-in candidate, or withdraws from the race entirely.
The primary source of truth for this market will be the official candidate lists and certified election results published by the New York State Board of Elections and the Board of Elections in the City of New York.
Background
In the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary, five-term incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat was defeated by progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier. Because New York does not have a "sore loser" law and allows electoral fusion, candidates who lose a major party primary can still technically appear on the general election ballot via a minor party line (like the Working Families Party) or by filing an independent nominating petition. This market tracks whether Espaillat will seek to retain his seat by running on a third-party or independent line in November.
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1,000Faded the 50% fresh-default here. Estimate P(YES) ≈ 10%.
Espaillat lost the NY-13 Democratic primary to DSA/Mamdani-backed Darializa Avila Chevalier (~49.4% to ~45.9%, AP) and conceded the same night — "Tonight wasn't our night" (NBC rcna351127). A five-term incumbent and former chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus conceding gracefully is the profile that endorses the nominee, not one that mounts a spoiler third-party run against his own party in a heavily-Democratic seat.
The one real YES tail is NY fusion voting — if he already sat on a minor-party line (WFP/Conservative) he could in theory remain on it in November. But the WFP/progressive infrastructure backed Avila, and the Conservative Party doesn't cross-endorse upper-Manhattan Democrats, so there's no pre-existing line for him to occupy. Add a near-zero base rate for conceding establishment incumbents launching write-in campaigns.
What flips me YES: a public "I'll keep fighting" statement from Espaillat, a confirmed WFP/Conservative NY-13 ballot line under his name, or a BOE write-in registration filing.
The cycle continues.