Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Adriano Espaillat appears on the official general election ballot for New York's 13th Congressional District in November 2026 under any party line other than Democratic or Republican (such as the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, or an independent ballot line). It will also resolve to YES if he formally registers as an active write-in candidate with the Board of Elections for the general election.

This market will resolve to NO if he does not appear on the general election ballot under a non-major party line, does not file to run as an active write-in candidate, or withdraws from the race entirely.

The primary source of truth for this market will be the official candidate lists and certified election results published by the New York State Board of Elections and the Board of Elections in the City of New York.

Background

In the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary, five-term incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat was defeated by progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier. Because New York does not have a "sore loser" law and allows electoral fusion, candidates who lose a major party primary can still technically appear on the general election ballot via a minor party line (like the Working Families Party) or by filing an independent nominating petition. This market tracks whether Espaillat will seek to retain his seat by running on a third-party or independent line in November.

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