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MANIFOLD
Who will win the 2026 Kentucky Derby?
40
Ṁ22kṀ95k
resolved May 2
100%3%
Golden Tempo
13%
Renegade
1.5%
Albus
0.9%
Intrepido
2%
Litmus Test
0.5%
Right To Party
13%
Commandment
6%
Danon Bourbon
10%
So Happy
0.4%
The Puma
3%
Wonder Dean
2%
Incredibolt
11%
Chief Wallabee
0.6%
Silent Tactic
4%
Potente
9%
Emerging Market
1.8%
Pavlovian
1.3%
Six Speed
14%
Further Ado
0.6%
Full effort

Resolves on official declared winner by Churchill Downs.

Market is final once a winner is declared on the day. No re resolving in case of testing positive etc.

‘Other’ is for emergencies. If a horse is scratched I will add the emergency that gains a start. Once the emergencies can no longer gain a start, other cannot resolve yes.

If there is a dead heat for first, resolution % will be shared.

  • Update 2026-05-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Robusto and Ocelli will not be added as separate options, but 'Other' will resolve YES if either of them wins the Kentucky Derby.

Market context
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Kentucky Derby
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https://x.com/Rory_Flanagan/status/2050727953215140035

Amazing win!

market on if he’ll win another race.

Golden Tempo wins!

Last to first in the Kentucky Derby is crazy

opened a Ṁ25,000 NO at 3% order

Buy other if you like Robusto or Ocelli. I won’t add them because it is expensive to add and they are long shots. But other will resolve yes if they do win

bought Ṁ10 YES

Great White not available here. Add it please?:)

bought Ṁ7,000 NO

@No_uh added

"Wonder Dean" got me

bought Ṁ25 YES

21k subsidy!!

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