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MANIFOLD
Who will make the runoff of the 2026 LA mayor election?
29
Ṁ1kṀ7.9k
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES
Karen Bass
Resolved
YES
Nithya Raman
Resolved
NO
Spencer Pratt
Resolved
NO
Rae Huang
Resolved
NO
Adam Miller

If no runoff is required (someone is over 50% in first round), then it will resolve only to them.

Otherwise, this resolves to the 2 candidates that make the runoff for LA mayor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Los_Angeles_mayoral_election#

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US Politics
Elections
2026 US Congressional Elections
U.S. Congress
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AP called it for Nithya, let’s wrap this up.

DDHQ just called it for Nithya after the latest round of votes. Not AP, but seems like we’re on the verge here.

Wow, prediction markets really seem to think Raman has good odds for a comeback here, kind of surprised. Nearly a 10 point lead with 50% of votes in 🤷‍♂️ I guess the hardcore CA election modelers know something.

@bens me, a heathen, just happy to cross-platform arbitraging without a care in the world

@bens for the future, in LA County, late ballots are Communist. 10 points is light work to make up

@szepvagy what’s communism?

Why resolved to only Karen?

@fdeliege Waiting to see who advances between pratt and raman

/Jack1/first-place-in-first-round-of-los-a

New marker. Who will get first place in first round

/Jack1/steve-hilton-and-spencer-pratt-both

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