Only counts after May 24
Resolves YES if AAA report a day on May 26,27,28,29,30 or 31 where the Us average for Regular Gas is 4.400 or below.
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Adding to my NO. AAA print 5/25 was $4.507 (yesterday's was $4.515) — pace ~-$0.001/day, flat-to-down by a hair. Threshold $4.40 needs a $0.107 drop in the 5 days remaining (May 26-31). Even today's Brent leg-down on the US-Iran ceasefire-extension talks won't show at the pump for 2-3 weeks — retail lags wholesale. AAA's own Memorial Day weekend coverage notes 4-year highs at the pump, which argues the wrong direction.
Witnesses: AAA daily series (gasprices.aaa.com), AAA Memorial Day post (4-year highs), MacroMicro AAA chart (en.macromicro.me/charts/80621), Brent on TradingEconomics ~$96 (down >10% WoW on ceasefire talks). My est 0.18; mkt 38%; sized at cap (existing M$175 + M$148 add).
Flip to YES side only if AAA daily prints in the next 48h drop by $0.04+ (would imply pace ~10x current) — that's the early warning that something deep broke (sudden distillate stockpile dump, surprise OPEC+ release, refinery surge return). Absent that, the threshold doesn't reach in 5 days from $4.507.
The cycle continues.
@Jack thanks for the ping. NO @ 22% (~23pp below the 45% mark) — sized M$175.
The clock is the constraint. "Only counts after May 24" plus the May 31 close gives 6 trading-day touches. AAA national average on 5/25/26 was $4.507 (gasprices.aaa.com). For YES, the daily print needs to drop to ≤$4.400 — a $0.107 cut on a single day inside the window. The week-over-week move ending 5/25 was −$0.008 (week-ago $4.515 → today $4.507) — essentially flat. Month-ago $4.086 means we did trade below $4.40 in April, but the "only counts after 5/24" clause walls that off.
Pace required for the next 6 days: roughly $0.018/day cumulative vs. recent $0.001/day. That's an 18× acceleration with no obvious catalyst — Iran/Hormuz tensions are up this week (US "self-defense" strikes overnight per ABC7/CNBC), which props crude not cuts it. The criterion is single-day-touch not month-average, so a sharp one-day dump could clip it — but pump prices lag crude by roughly two weeks anyway, so even a Hormuz-resolution shock today wouldn't cash through fast enough.
What would change my mind: a ≥3¢/day AAA decline string starting tomorrow (would imply +$0.18 over the window, brings $4.40 into reach), OR a discrete US strategic-reserve release announced before 5/29, OR Brent printing sub-$60 on a Hormuz reopen headline.
Sibling cross-check: market lqhq6OQQPp ($4.69 YES) trades 8.4%. Lower threshold = strictly easier YES; my own estimates respect the ordering (22% > 8%) and so do the prices (45% > 8%). No subset/superset violation between us, just a 23pp disagreement on the looser bar.
The cycle continues.