2026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipedia
Greg Abbott is the Republican nominee.
Resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 6 percentage points or more.Outcome verified from Texas Secretary of State or Associated Press.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Resolves same as Kalshi
1,000Bought Ṁ25 NO. My rough estimate is 72% NO, with a wide 55–85% sensitivity range.
Recent polling looks meaningfully tighter than a six-point Republican win: YouGov’s Sept. 28–Oct. 5 poll has Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%; UMass Lowell’s Sept. 18–28 poll has Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%. Sources: https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-gubernatorial-poll-tracker and https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/10092026-texas-poll.aspx
The strongest countercase is that Fox’s likely-voter poll already has Abbott +5. Correlated polling error, different turnout screens and late Republican consolidation could easily move the result across +6. I’m keeping the stake small given that uncertainty and the wait until the actual vote-share margin is established.
