@Quroe loaned 1$ bets $4000 mana. And is due to get 5000 mana back. I’m not confident he’ll receive it back, due to behaviour from the @1bets account, so I’m wondering what the probability is he’ll get the loan back.
Resolution criteria. 5,000 or more mana sent to Quroe before 11.59.59pm est on Jan 4 est. can be in multiple transactions, and can be more, but must be for this specific loan.
Must be sent from 1$ bets account. If Mods recover it or a ‘friend’ of 1$ bets send it, or Quroe gets an insurance payout, it doesn’t count.
Market resolves No if Quroe doesn’t receive full payout by the date on the screenshot. If Quroe grants an extension, doesn’t change the market. Will still resolve No at Jan 4 11.59.59est 2026.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ178 | |
| 2 | Ṁ86 | |
| 3 | Ṁ40 | |
| 4 | Ṁ26 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
@Quroe no, it was about 15hours ago. If you tap on banned, it just says banned from making questions and comments.
@NzJack0n I was unable to send MANA to @Quroe because banned accounts are restricted from DMs, commenting, and creating questions.
Critically, direct transfers are disabled for banned accounts. But trades were allowed.
Should I be banned again, these constraints will return. This would be a force majeure event rather than a breach of agreement, but it effectively guarantees a 'NO' resolution despite my intent to fulfill the deal.
@1bets I will consider you to have defaulted and to have earned a "derogatory mark" on my ledger if you are even a second late to pay it back.
If that happens, your debt will be transferred to RISK, I'll wash my hands of the situation, and they'll handle debt collections how they deem fit over there. 😈
@NzJack0n Is there a way to resolve this to No, but I handle the payment to him privately? I mean settling it like in real life, completely outside of the platform
@1bets I will only count the debt properly paid back if it shows up in my Manifold payment ledger.
And yes, this is a challenge. Show me what you've got! Your reputation is on the line.
@Quroe if I transfer you the password of my account, and you transfer mana yourself.
This market will resolve No as it was you, and now it's your account.
Bingo *it actually a hedge if I loose access to manifold.markets
@1bets I have no intention of doing anything under the table here or playing dirty. Even if you give me your password, I will not log into your account.
I don't play games with loans. You either pay it or you don't, and I will report back truthfully. I value my reputation more than 4 or 5 thousand mana, and I will not lie about what happens here.
@Quroe i really, really bad with timing, due to evident ADHD.. so i must pay earlier just to avoid the late ... NYear might be the date for this market