Resolves based on what is revealed in the documentary released tomorrow, and resulting events.
Update 2026-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For "The documentary is a nothingburger: no elected officials named or clearly identified", an elected official does not need to be named if they are narrowed down completely, including through undeniably obvious blurred video or audio.
If an objective viewer with reasonable familiarity with current politics could know who the elected official being identified is, the option will not resolve to nothingburger.
1,000Senator means the person actually portrayed in the documentary, not anyone associated with them
Senator odds for 2026 election drop at least 10% from Oct 21 12pm EST to Oct 23 random time EST(Use manifold dashboard market)
Must be senator in the documentary, if it’s Lindsay Graham or someone not up for election, resolves n/a
I will select a random time on October 23 to check the market, so they aren’t manipulated. I won’t bet on this answer because of this
Senator odds for 2026 election drop at least 10% from Oct 21 12pm EST to Oct 23 random time EST(Use manifold dashboard market)
Must be senator in the documentary, if it’s Lindsay Graham or someone not up for election, resolves n/a
I will select a random time on October 23 to check the market, so they aren’t manipulated. I won’t bet on this answer because of this