betting NO. alaska has historically voted republican consistently and michigan has leaned republican 56% to 44%. id estimate the probability at 30% max

@bobalobascrob what do you mean Michigan has leaned Republican 56% to 44%?

@Jack1 oops i had a typo; from its ballotopedia page michigan has voted republican 56%of the time vs 40% for democrat

@bobalobascrob since 1900

How does what happened in early 1900s presidential election mean anything 😂

No Republican has won a senate seat in Michigan this century, why would it happen in a blue wave year, when Mike rogers couldn’t win in 2024, republicans best year in a long time

@Jack1 good point, i don’t know much about politics outside of empirical stats

@bobalobascrob the since 2000 stat says Michigan has voted 72% Dem, would be more useful stat

But it doesn’t matter too much, Florida went from THE swing state to safe Republican seat in the last 15 years, things change, it’s all about the now,

I think blue wave too much for Mike rogers to overcome

@Jack1 did you see the Alaska primary results this week