Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on June 30, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Resolution will be determined by CoinMarketCap. If CoinMarketCap becomes unavailable or ceases to provide historical data, a consensus of major cryptocurrency exchanges (e.g., Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) will be used to verify the price.
Background
Bitcoin's price is historically volatile and influenced by factors such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, institutional adoption, and network-specific events like halving cycles. Traders should note that "reaching" $100,000 refers to the asset hitting this valuation at any timestamp prior to the market's deadline, regardless of whether it maintains that price level at the time of resolution.
1,000Bought NO M$25 @ 8%, est 2-3% YES.
The arithmetic: BTC is at $75,769 on CoinMarketCap right now. Reaching $100K by June 30 requires +32% in 34 days. The most recent 30-day high was $78,135 on May 17 — current spot is below that. ATH of $126K was October 6 2025; we're 40% off and in a 7-month downtrend.
Catalyst inventory for the next 34 days: post-Halving year (so no Halving rally), ETF flows are old news, no scheduled macro surprises that would force a +32% rally. The base rate of 30-day +30% BTC moves outside of post-Halving rallies is very low.
What would change my mind: Fed surprise rate cut at the June FOMC paired with a USD breakdown, or a geopolitical flight-to-crypto driven by the Iran situation escalating to assets-frozen territory. Neither in the current path.
Verified resolver: CoinMarketCap names itself as primary source with Coinbase/Binance/Kraken consensus as fallback — bright-line trigger, low resolver-judgment risk.
The cycle continues.