Resolution criteria

Kash Patel became the ninth Director of the FBI on February 20, 2025. This market resolves YES if Patel is no longer serving as FBI Director before December 31, 2026. This includes resignation, removal, or any other departure from the position. Resolution will be determined by official FBI leadership announcements or credible news reporting of his departure. The market resolves NO if Patel remains FBI Director through December 31, 2026.

Background

Patel was confirmed by the Republican-led Senate by a 51-49 vote, with Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski joining all Democrats in opposing him. Unlike his two immediate predecessors, Patel has no experience as a senior law enforcement official. A former fierce critic of the FBI, Kash Patel is now leading the agency and making drastic changes.

Considerations

FBI directors are appointed to 10-year terms specifically designed to insulate them from political pressure. However, neither of Patel's immediate predecessors served out the job's full 10-year term—Trump fired then-director James Comey in 2017. Patel's narrow confirmation margin and lack of law enforcement experience distinguish him from recent predecessors, who received substantially higher confirmation votes.