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It seems that RH had answered to Zvi in a related market: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-robin-hanson-ever-turn-down-an#88jv57c2gta
saying that he refused because he believed that Krantz wanted to talk about other things.

I checked, and nowhere in the links below it is specified that Krantz wanted to talk about prediction markets specifically. The links mention:
1. trying to talk for many years
2. talk and win Nobel prize
3. talk about mechanistically interpretable path to increase the wages of analytic philosophers by 2 orders of magnitude within 5 years
4. talk because they (Krantz) had the (one of the) most important messages to give society
which is consistent with RH answer. I am resolving NO.

“Krantz” means anything and therefore essentially nothing, with the description shifting constantly depending on the current input to the user Krantz. Sometimes it’s “a prediction market”, sometimes it’s “an 8 billion person orgy, sometimes it’s “a replacement for all currency”, sometimes it’s twitter, etc.

As such talking about it isn’t “talking about prediction markets.”

Did/turn

Has/turned

I've been trying to talk with him for a while.

https://x.com/therealkrantz/status/1975950086363598979?s=19

@Krantz Thanks. Though I'm leaning on this not being enough evidence (hard to say whether this is because he turned you down, didn't notice, something else).

@Jacek Thank you for considering it. I actually think this prediction will be super helpful. I'll try to provide more evidence of past attemps over the next day.

@Krantz

https://x.com/therealkrantz/status/1932818631471087828?s=19

https://x.com/therealkrantz/status/1905680481212936315?s=19

https://x.com/therealkrantz/status/1904658380783857978?s=19

There's a lot more I could provide, but this should be sufficient.

I am beginning to lean in the direction that this counts, but not fully.

He replied in link #3 above, but...

I could be more convinced this should resolve YES if the case was more solid that Hanson understood that the topic of "Krantz" (the proposed mechanism) was prediction market related or adjacent.

It does help the case that the reply in link #3 chronologically comes before the claim from the link in the market description.

However, I do agree that there is an information vacuum about whether Krantz's (the person) follow-up was read or not.