MANIFOLD
Will one presidential candidate drop below 30% odds then go on to win?
32
Ṁ372Ṁ4.9k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the candidate that wins drops below 30% odds on Polymarket.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

For example, in 2020, on election day Trump's odds went to 80+% during the "red mirage" as in person votes were reported first and then he lost as the mail in votes were counted.

Resolution criteria is the 1 day chart, the candidate must be below 30% for 15 minutes consecutively, at any point after this market was created.

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In a continuous process this would be exactly 30%, but alas

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