Will the upcoming executive order on AI be the longest executive order in history?
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resolved Nov 21
Resolved
NO
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predicted YES

We including annexes 🤔

Really wish I wasn't busy writing a memo for a class and could correct this market...

predicted YES

@HarrisonDurland Does that mean it's too high or low😅

@Joshua Don't know! As Caleb points out, it seems to depend on whether we include annexes. It's very clearly not longer than all with annexes.
I don't even know where to find resolution details...

sold Ṁ62 of YES

Creator didn't specify any resolution details, so we just have the title.

@JSD do annexes count?

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@HarrisonDurland I just put my money down assuming that it does include annexes, because I asked GPT-4 "are annexes considered part of executive orders" and it said "Yes, annexes are considered part of executive orders when they are attached to the order. An annex provides additional details, clarifications, or supplementary information to the main content of the executive order. When an executive order references an annex, the annex is treated as an integral part of the order and carries the same weight and authority. In essence, an annex is a way to include more detailed information without cluttering the main body of the executive order."
And see e.g., https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2018-03-08/pdf/2018-04860.pdf
Honestly this is probably a mistake—at least, the fact that I'm spending time betting on this rather than writing my memo for class 😅

@HarrisonDurland Yeah I’ll defer to GPT-4 here and include annexes

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@JSD This can resolve negatively in that case - as Harrison mentioned, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2018-03-08/pdf/2018-04860.pdf is ~440 pages compared to the EO's ~35 https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2023-11-01/pdf/2023-24283.pdf

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Broken link

@NicoDelon Now deleted tweet by https://x.com/kelmgren?s=21 saying that the rumor in DC is that "the widely-rumored upcoming executive order on AI will be the longest executive order in history"

predicted NO

@JSD Do you have any other source for that rumor about a rumor?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Seems this would be difficult to confirm

@Joshua ? Manually count the words of every executive order ever and then see if it’s the longest

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