Will UK's real GDP growth for year 2025 exceed 1% under Labor party?
10
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2025
37%
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This market predicts whether the United Kingdom's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the year 2025 will exceed 1%, assuming the Labor Party is in power. The outcome will be determined using the official real GDP growth rate for the UK, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), for the calendar year 2025.

The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

  1. The Labor Party is in power for the majority of the year 2025, and

  2. The officially reported real GDP growth rate for the UK in 2025 is greater than 1%.

The market will resolve as "No" if:

  1. The Labor Party is in power for the majority of the year 2025, or

  2. The officially reported real GDP growth rate for the UK in 2025 is 1% or less.

The question will be resolved as N/A if labor loses majority.

Resolution will occur once the ONS releases the official real GDP growth rate for the year 2025, typically in the first quarter of 2026.

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edboughtṀ50YES

1% is really low

bought Ṁ20 NO

@ed Q4 2023 (October to December)

  • The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in Q4 2023 compared to the previous quarter.

  • This marked the second consecutive quarterly contraction, meeting the technical definition of a recession.

  • Services, production, and construction sectors all contributed negatively to growth in Q4.

  • 12 out of 20 sub-sectors experienced contraction, up from 10 in Q3.

Q3 2023 (July to September)

  • GDP fell by 0.1% in Q3 2023, an unrevised estimate from the previous release.

Q2 2023 (April to June)

  • The quarterly growth figure for Q2 2023 remained unrevised at 0.1%.

Q1 2023 (January to March)

  • Growth in Q1 2023 was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% compared to the previous estimate.

@JKHater the question asks for an annual estimate... what is not clear is the reference point, is it the previous year or some other year, that would be good to clarify. also, this question needs much more time than stated (01-01-2025), actually, we can talk about the growth (or contraction of the economy) for 2025 in the year 2026, so I hope that the author can clarify these points...
one example is https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?view=cha&locations=GB-1W

@ed I am not sure how World Bank's estimates is relevant to this question? And the reference point is YoY, as it is usually calculated usually. Regarding much more time needed is already addressed: "Resolution will occur once the ONS releases the official real GDP growth rate for the year 2025, typically in the first quarter of 2026." What are you referring to? The fact that market closes in a year?

@JKHater yeah, the actual date is set on 01 01 2025

@ed What’s the problem with that? We are betting on whether if labor can revive. That’s the point?

@JKHater we are betting on the estimate for gdp growth in UK for 2025. It is not possibe to know that value before 2026. The date of resolution of this question is set to 2025-01-01. This has nothing to do with revival, but with confussion.

@ed I dont believe there is an automatic resolve date. Do correct me if I am wrong. The question closes end of 2024.

@JKHater this is worring... how can you ask a question that refers to 2025 and you want to close it at the end of this year?

@ed Hi Ed,

I understand your confusion regarding the closing date of the betting market at the end of 2024 for a prediction about the UK’s GDP growth in 2025. Here are the key reasons for this decision:

1. Market Stability and Confidence: Betting markets thrive on stable and predictable rules. Setting a clear closing date ensures that all participants have a definitive timeline for their bets. This prevents prolonged uncertainty and maintains market integrity, encouraging more participation and liquidity in the market.

2. Information Asymmetry: Allowing the market to remain open into 2025 would create significant information asymmetry. As 2025 progresses, various economic indicators and preliminary data would start to emerge, potentially giving some participants an unfair advantage if they have access to more timely or accurate information. Closing the market by the end of 2024 ensures that all participants are betting based on the same set of available information.

3. Avoiding Speculative Volatility: Keeping the market open while new economic data for 2025 starts to trickle in could lead to speculative volatility, where participants react to incomplete or speculative reports. This could distort the market and lead to erratic price movements, making the market less reflective of true expectations and more of short-term speculation.

4. Administrative Practicality: Resolving the market based on the official GDP growth rate, which is typically released in the first quarter of 2026, requires a clear cut-off point for bets. Closing the market at the end of 2024 simplifies the administration and ensures a clean and timely resolution without the need for continuous adjustments or re-evaluations.

5. Predictive Nature: The core purpose of this market is to predict the GDP growth rate under specific conditions (i.e., the Labor Party being in power). By closing the market at the end of 2024, we are capturing the predictions made before the actual events of 2025 unfold. This aligns with the predictive nature of the market, making it a forward-looking indicator rather than a reactive one.

I hope this clarifies the rationale behind the decision to close the betting market by the end of 2024.

@JKHater this is alright, as it is possible just to change in the title to 2024 before the question closes 😝

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