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I am waiting until Monday so all the 8/30 polls can be included but 99%+ it will resolve NO

@IsaacKohane Why? It’s “as measured” now 1 week after the debate.

eh nevermind. It would be the biggest, most hilarious comeback if he ended up polling higher.

@IsaacKohane can you resolve?

Not seeing how he pulls this one off

Yikes 9.2%

@AaronBreckenridge Huge surprise to me. I knew he had no legs in the race but I figured he would at least get a mild bump from the media attention

I had heard his name mentioned and was curious, but nearly instant dislike as soon as he started talking policy. High points from the debate was him attacking all the other candidates on their status as politicians, but his policies are just Trump 2.0.

10.3% this morning.

Interesting, he received a surge of support right before the debate, but then it flatlined once the debate took place. I would say that people just didn't like his performance in the debate better than the other candidates, but then I would expect his support to go down rather than staying the same. Maybe the increasing media coverage of him in the lead-up to the debate is what lead to the increase.

@JosephNoonan That’s because he’s utterly unlikable and has bad ideas.

@4mur1c4 Having bad ideas isn't much of a disadvantage in a Republican primary.

@JosephNoonan Zing! That’s a totally valid point.

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1696145630257623174 (just one poll. The outcome depends on the average as per FiveThirtyEight https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/

National : President: Republican primary : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

I assume polls released on the 30th will still count, seeing as the debate was on wednesday evening?

@Dennis5a87 Correct!

@IsaacKohane So are we going by the number presented by 538's average at the end of the 30th or by the average presented by 538 when polls that where done until the 30th are added?

@Tarl The latter. So we may have to wait a few days.

@IsaacKohane Will you resolve at the value immediately before the first poll extending beyond the 30th is added?

@GenghisConn good Q

Maybe not so safe afterall :-)

@Reality Good point. We'll see how the next few days pan out.

@Reality He’s fluctuated from 10.1 to 9.9 and now back to 10.1. It’ll surprise me if he achieves 10.7 in the next 2.5 days.

Haley has gone from 3.4% to 5.4% in the same time.

@IsaacKohane the debate was 8/23. Shouldn’t this close on 8/30?

@AaronBreckenridge Correct! But I am just giving myself time to verify etc

@IsaacKohane you can close a market so that there is no after the fact trading and then resolve only once you have verified.

@ShitakiIntaki 👍