When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total animal-based meat market of any country? | Manifold

When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total animal-based meat market of any country?

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2071

2050

expected

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2022-11-28: Clarification.
Meat refers to animal-based meat, both cultured and from animals with nervous systems. It does not include plant-based meat.

This should resolve as soon as 10% is achieved.

Mar 19, 12:58pm: ~~When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total meat market of any country?~~ → When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total animal-based meat market of any country?

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predicts LOWER

Resolves when 10% is achieved right?

Because 2071 is in a very long time. It's in very long time considering that with both human R&D and then AGI taking over that R&D, it will taste better than the animal abuse counterpart because it can be tailor made while being cheaper to produce. AGI will likely happen by 2030 or so already.

Right now the estimate is 2044 for 10% lab meat, but by then we would likely already have had AGI for years, 100% lab meat and beginning to experience the technological singularity.

predicts LOWER

@THEWINNER Yes, it should resolve as soon as 10% is achieved. I will update the description.

Does the denominator include plant meat?

@MartinRandall No.

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