Will Unsong be published by 2025?
20
183
410
2025
46%
chance

Predict whether Scott Alexander's Kabbalistic fantasy novel will be published (in that you could buy a physical copy of it) by 2025, ten years following the release of its prologue online.

It would be cool to see Unsong published, but I will take appropriate action if you feel this market should not exist, Scott.

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Couldn't you already buy a vanity print of it if you wanted to? What's the threshold in terms of counting as being published?

@Tripping e.g. does it have to be published with Scott's permission, or does it have to be from a particular set of big publishers, or would it count if only a small part of it was published, etc

predicts YES

@Tripping The market resolves positively if UNSONG is published with Scott’s permission

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@IshaanKoratkar

I have bought a physical copy from lulu. Drunkfish got explicit permission here to publicize here.

predicts YES

@bw Oh, I didn't know that. I'm conflicted on whether this means I resolve the market positively. The subtext in my own head was that this would require it to be officially published to resolve positively. That was not mentioned in the actual text description of the market though. I will wait.

predicts YES

@IshaanKoratkar The original text was not clear, which is why @Tripping asked for clarification about exactly this scenario. Your answer seems pretty clear.

predicts NO
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