Predict whether Scott Alexander's Kabbalistic fantasy novel will be published (in that you could buy a physical copy of it) by 2025, ten years following the release of its prologue online.
It would be cool to see Unsong published, but I will take appropriate action if you feel this market should not exist, Scott.
Related questions
@Tripping e.g. does it have to be published with Scott's permission, or does it have to be from a particular set of big publishers, or would it count if only a small part of it was published, etc
@Tripping The market resolves positively if UNSONG is published with Scott’s permission
@bw Oh, I didn't know that. I'm conflicted on whether this means I resolve the market positively. The subtext in my own head was that this would require it to be officially published to resolve positively. That was not mentioned in the actual text description of the market though. I will wait.
@IshaanKoratkar The original text was not clear, which is why @Tripping asked for clarification about exactly this scenario. Your answer seems pretty clear.